Did Ieyasu Really Aim to Rule Japan? Perhaps He Simply Found Himself in Charge

While watching today’s episode of a Japanese historical drama, a thought occurred to me.

Tokugawa Ieyasu is often portrayed in dramas as an ambitious man who had his sights set on ruling all of Japan.

For readers outside Japan, Ieyasu was the man who effectively usurped control of the country after Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s death and established the Tokugawa shogunate, which lasted for about 260 years. In Japan, he is often described as a devious and calculating schemer.

He bows to Hideyoshi while privately thinking, “One day, the country will be mine.” That is a common portrayal of the duplicitous Ieyasu.

But was that really the case?

I have long had doubts about the idea that Ieyasu intended to rule Japan from the very beginning.

Judging from videos by historians I have watched, a surprising number of specialists seem to share a similar view.

Because we know how the story ends, we tend to imagine that Ieyasu had planned the establishment of the Tokugawa shogunate from the start.

But from his perspective, the future could not have been visible with such convenient clarity.

Perhaps he simply kept dealing with the problems in front of him and, before he knew it, had become the ruler of Japan.

There Was No Guarantee Hideyoshi Would Die First

Even if Ieyasu had intended to seize Hideyoshi’s rule, the first problem was life expectancy.

No one knew when Hideyoshi would die.

They were close enough in age that Ieyasu himself might have died first.

“Once Hideyoshi dies, I will take control of the country.”

Even if Ieyasu made such a plan, it could never begin if Hideyoshi happened to live a long life.

Something similar could happen in a modern company: a person aims for promotion while waiting for the president to retire, only to reach retirement age first.

In the Sengoku period, the uncertainty concerned not merely retirement but whether a person would remain alive at all.

No One Knew the Toyotomi Government Would Become So Unstable

After Hideyoshi died in 1598, Ieyasu increased his influence as one of the leading figures in the Toyotomi government.

Naturally, Ieyasu must have wanted to expand his own power.

But no one at the time could have known how far the Toyotomi government would weaken.

From Ieyasu’s perspective, the first objective may simply have been to improve his own position within the government.

As he pursued that objective, his conflict with Ishida Mitsunari and others deepened until it ultimately led to the Battle of Sekigahara.

The mainstream view in historical research today is that Sekigahara should not be understood simply as Tokugawa versus Toyotomi, but as a power struggle within the Toyotomi government.

Seen that way, perhaps Ieyasu was fighting not to destroy the Toyotomi family, but to seize the initiative within its government.

Rather than a war launched to take the country, it was more like an internal factional dispute that unexpectedly grew into a decisive battle for control of the entire company.

That was some remarkably violent office politics.

Ieyasu Won at Sekigahara, Yet the Toyotomi Family Survived for 15 More Years

This is the part I find particularly interesting.

In 1600, Ieyasu won the Battle of Sekigahara.

In 1603, he became shogun and established the Tokugawa shogunate in Edo.

The Toyotomi family, however, did not fall until the Summer Campaign of the Siege of Osaka in 1615.

That was a full 15 years after Sekigahara.

If Ieyasu’s objective had been to destroy the Toyotomi family from the beginning, why did it take so long?

The Toyotomi family still possessed authority and supporters at the time and was not an opponent that could be eliminated easily.

Yet those 15 years show Ieyasu gradually consolidating Tokugawa rule as circumstances changed.

Rather than executing a finished plan exactly as written, perhaps he considered his next move each time the situation shifted.

More interesting still, Ieyasu continued until the end to leave open the possibility that the Toyotomi family could survive.

The Toyotomi could remain if they submitted to Tokugawa authority. The fact that such conditions were offered suggests that Ieyasu did not hate the Toyotomi family itself.

Another interpretation is that the Toyotomi side clung too firmly to its former status as the ruling family.

Perhaps the Toyotomi family could accept that it no longer ruled Japan, but could not bring itself to bow to Ieyasu, who had once been its subordinate.

Seen that way, the destruction of the Toyotomi family looks less like the climax of a grand usurpation plotted by Ieyasu for decades and more like the result of a conflict that remained unresolved until the end.

History Is Interesting Because We Know the Result

Historical dramas portray Ieyasu as a strategist making plans decades into the future.

That makes for better drama.

Real people, however, cannot see that far ahead.

Ieyasu could not know when Hideyoshi would die. He had no guarantee of victory at Sekigahara. He could not know what would happen to the Toyotomi family.

Amid that uncertainty, Ieyasu survived, expanded his power, and seized the opportunities that appeared before him.

The fact that he ultimately took control of the country does not mean he calculated everything from the beginning.

When you think about it, similar stories are told about successful people today.

Some entrepreneurs later claim that they always intended to build a global corporation from the moment they founded their company.

In reality, however, they may have come close to failure many times, benefited from accidental good fortune, and changed direction whenever circumstances demanded it.

Perhaps Ieyasu was that kind of person too.

When we look back on a successful person’s life, everything appears to have gone according to plan.

But the plan is usually written not by that person, but by people who came later.