How Mauritius, a Small Resource-Poor African Nation, Became Prosperous—Political Stability as Its Greatest Asset
Have you heard of Mauritius, a small African island nation?
Located in the Indian Ocean, the country does not possess abundant mineral resources such as oil or rare metals. It once depended on the sugar industry, but today it has achieved one of Africa’s greatest economic successes, led by tourism, finance, textiles, and other industries.
What, then, is the greatest asset behind its success?
I believe it is political stability.
The Value of Knowing the Government Will Not Suddenly Be Overthrown
When following news from Africa, we sometimes hear that a government has been toppled by a military coup.
A president who was in office yesterday is suddenly detained, and a military officer appears on television to announce that the armed forces have taken control of the country.
Would you want to do business in a country like that?
Even if you built a factory, the next government might confiscate your assets. No one knows what will happen to contracts or laws after power changes hands.
Under those conditions, foreign investment will not arrive.
Mauritius, by contrast, has experienced repeated peaceful transfers of power through elections since gaining independence in 1968.
Because its political system is stable, companies can make long-term investments. Tourism has developed, and the financial sector has grown.
Industrial diversification and economic policy have also contributed to its success, but political stability is what allowed those efforts to accumulate over many years.
Even without oil beneath the ground, simply knowing that the government will not suddenly be overthrown creates enormous economic value for a country.
When you think about it, this is obvious.
Japan Was Once a Country of Coups Too
What about Japan?
Almost no one in Japan today seriously worries that the Self-Defense Forces might suddenly occupy the National Diet tomorrow and overthrow the government.
But prewar Japan was different.
In the May 15 Incident of 1932, young naval officers and others assassinated Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai.
In the February 26 Incident of 1936, young army officers led troops in attacks on senior government figures and occupied central Tokyo.
A prime minister was assassinated, and soldiers launched a rebellion in the capital.
From today’s perspective, this sounds like news from some distant country, but it actually happened in Japan about 90 years ago.
Japan, too, once went through a period when it did not possess the asset of political stability.
The August Without an Emperor and a Coup in Japan
Years ago, I watched a Japanese film called The August Without an Emperor.
It is a political thriller in which part of the Self-Defense Forces plots a coup, hijacks an overnight express train, and takes the passengers hostage.
The rebels reject Japan’s postwar political system and call for measures including the creation of a constitution written independently by Japan.
It is an entertaining film.
But what would happen if incidents like that occurred repeatedly in the real Japan?
Deploy the military because you dislike the government. Take up arms because you want to change politics.
Would foreign companies feel safe investing in such a country?
In a country where changing politics through coups becomes normal, society loses its fundamental credibility before the economy even has a chance to develop.
In a film, it makes for a tense thriller. In reality, it would be anything but entertainment.
The Value of Boring Politics
Today, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are subject to civilian control.
I have never served in them, but from videos made by former members and footage of disaster-relief operations, they appear to be a disciplined organization.
At the very least, it is difficult to imagine senior officers leading units toward the National Diet simply because they are dissatisfied with politics.
That sense of security is itself an enormous asset.
I have complaints about Japanese politics. I sometimes dislike its economic policies, and politicians’ remarks can leave me astonished.
But when governments change, they do so through elections.
The losing side does not take up arms in resistance.
Learning about the success of Mauritius reminded me that political stability is itself an enormous piece of infrastructure for economic development.
It is invisible, unlike roads, ports, and power plants. But if it collapses, none of the other infrastructure can be used with confidence.
Will Trump Leave Office Without a Fight?
After writing all of this, another thought occurred to me.
When President Trump’s current term ends, will he leave office without a fight?
Or what would happen if he were impeached by Congress and removed from office?
Could he call on his supporters to launch an armed uprising?
In 2021, Trump supporters actually stormed the U.S. Capitol. So the concern does not feel entirely groundless.
Come to think of it, there was also a film called Civil War, which depicted a second American civil war.
The very fact that such a film was made may reflect how far division within the United States has progressed.
Mauritius became prosperous with political stability as an asset.
What, then, would happen if the United States, the world’s largest economy, allowed that same asset to deteriorate?
A small country without natural resources grows rich through political stability, while the world’s largest economy declines after losing it.
I found myself imagining even that ironic future.
The United States once traveled around the world lecturing politically unstable countries about the importance of democracy.
Will the day come when it has to ask Mauritius how to conduct a peaceful transfer of power?