I Never Thought I Would Pray for Putin and Xi Jinping to Live Long Lives

I was watching a TV program where political and foreign-affairs commentators were debating, and a rather chilling idea came up.

The topic was: “Are Russia and China hard-line because of Putin and Xi Jinping?”

Normally, the answer seems simple.

Once the dictator is gone, the country will democratize and become a partner you can actually talk to.

I had vaguely assumed the same.

But the program presented almost the opposite view.

Putin Is Apparently a “Moderate”

According to a commentator familiar with Russia, there are plenty of people inside Russia who are far more extreme than Putin.

Hard-liners who openly say, “Drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine,” are apparently not unusual.

Putin looks dangerous enough from the outside, but inside Russia, he partly serves as a breakwater holding those people back.

The argument was that the reason Russia and the West have avoided nuclear war is that Putin sits in the middle as the last point of contact you can still talk to.

If Putin is the one you “can talk to,” what kind of people are the ones you can’t?

I would rather not imagine.

A Democratic China Invades Taiwan

Another commentator said something similar about China.

What would happen if China fully democratized right now and held elections?

Riding a wave of intense nationalism at home, a bold, hard-line party would likely win.

Then, under the impressive banner of “the will of the people,” it might invade Taiwan without hesitation.

An invasion carried out through proper democratic procedure.

If that turned out to be the result of the West spending decades saying, “China should democratize too,” it would be too grim to laugh at.

In short, the view is that the dictator is not leading the country into recklessness, but holding it down from above, like the lid on a bottle.

Once the lid comes off, nobody knows what will burst out.

Democracies Go to War, Too

When you think about it, democracy does not necessarily stop wars.

The Nazis took power after becoming the largest party through elections.

In Japan, too, at the time of the Manchurian Incident in 1931, when the Japanese army seized northeast China, it was the newspapers and the public who were most enthusiastic.

If the public is angry, democracy will gladly deliver that anger to politics.

That is both the good side of democracy and the frightening side.

“Peace will come once the dictator is gone” may just be convenient wishful thinking on the part of those watching from the outside.

And that leads to an awkward conclusion.

For the sake of world peace, the best option may be for Putin and Xi Jinping to stay healthy for as long as possible.

I never imagined the day would come when I would pray for the health of those two.

Then again, at last year’s military parade in Beijing, a microphone picked up the two of them talking about how organ transplants might let people live to 150. They are already more than enthusiastic about it without my prayers.