The Emptiness of Obsessing Over National Favorability Polls: Nearby Interests Matter More Than Distant Affection

I recently read an article about an international survey measuring how favorably people view different countries.

The United States has fallen considerably in recent polls. In one survey, China was viewed more favorably than the United States in many of the 36 countries surveyed—a result that would have seemed surprising not long ago. This partly reflects improving perceptions of China, but the larger factor is the sharp decline in views of the United States under the Trump administration.

Given President Trump’s confrontational foreign policy and unpredictable behavior, the result is hardly surprising.

Yet whenever I see news like this, a different question comes to mind.

How much should we really care about a country’s favorability rating?

Neighbors Rarely Get Along

Look around the world, and it is striking how often neighboring countries are at odds.

This is not just about Japan and China or Japan and South Korea.

Borders, territory, history, immigration, fishing rights, trade, and security: the closer countries are, the more their interests overlap and the more reasons they have to clash.

The Japanese public’s negative view of China is a typical example. In a 2026 Pew survey, 88% of respondents in Japan expressed an unfavorable view of China.

When you think about it, this is hardly surprising.

Neighbors can argue over something as minor as when to take out the trash. You will never have that argument with someone who lives on the other side of the planet.

Countries are not so different.

By contrast, it is easy to have a relaxed opinion about a distant country with which you have little direct conflict of interest.

“I like Japan because I love anime.”

“I like South Korea because I love K-pop.”

“Switzerland has beautiful scenery.”

Those can be perfectly sufficient reasons.

There is nothing wrong with that. I have similar impressions of other countries myself.

But such feelings are not the same as diplomatic trust.

Popular Culture Can Raise a Country’s Standing, and One Politician Can Lower It

The international success of K-pop, television dramas, and films has undoubtedly helped improve South Korea’s global image.

The same is true of Japan.

Anime, manga, video games, food, and tourism improve Japan’s image around the world without the Japanese government having to do anything.

The United States, meanwhile, is experiencing the opposite effect.

In other words, national favorability ratings can shift surprisingly easily.

They rise when a popular singer becomes a global star.

They rise when a film becomes an international hit.

They fall when a politician behaves provocatively.

And they may recover when the administration changes.

Seen in that light, favorability is a rather superficial measure of a country’s real strength.

Distant Affection Does Not Pay the Bills

To put it bluntly, if someone on the other side of the world tells me, “I love Japan,” it has almost no effect on my daily life.

Of course, favorable perceptions can have indirect benefits. They can attract tourists, increase sales of Japanese products, and turn cultural influence into a diplomatic asset.

But my point here concerns the rankings themselves.

“The world loves Japan!”

“We rank above China!”

“South Korea has overtaken us!”

I see little value in the public celebrating or despairing over every change in such rankings.

What matters far more is how we build relationships with the people and countries we must deal with, whether we like them or not.

The same is true at work.

It matters less to hear “You’re a nice person” from someone in another department whom you meet once a year than it does to work smoothly with the people beside you every day.

For countries, the stakes are even higher.

Prime Minister Takaichi Decided Not to Visit Yasukuni Shrine

That is why Prime Minister Takaichi’s decision regarding Yasukuni Shrine on August 15 this year was so interesting.

She chose not to visit the shrine on the anniversary of the end of World War II.

For readers outside Japan, some context may be helpful.

Yasukuni Shrine commemorates those who died in Japan’s wars. However, it also enshrines figures convicted as Class-A war criminals by the postwar Tokyo Trials. Visits by Japanese prime ministers and cabinet ministers have therefore repeatedly caused diplomatic disputes with China and South Korea.

Naturally, the decision disappointed parts of Takaichi’s conservative political base.

From a diplomatic perspective, however, I think it was a highly pragmatic choice.

What practical benefit would Japan gain by deliberately provoking China and South Korea and creating another diplomatic dispute?

Winning applause from your own supporters is not the same as advancing the national interest.

Politics is not a popularity contest.

But Diplomacy Is Not That Simple

At this point, the argument could have ended neatly.

Then another troubling story emerged today.

Recently, a series of statements from China have cast doubt on whether Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands belong to Japan.

That development makes the earlier argument more complicated.

I still think Prime Minister Takaichi was right to avoid an unnecessary dispute with China by staying away from Yasukuni Shrine.

But diplomacy involves another reality.

If one side makes a concession, the other side will not necessarily reciprocate.

It may instead conclude that it can push this far without resistance and intensify its demands.

If questions about Okinawa’s sovereignty arise immediately after Takaichi decides not to visit Yasukuni, domestic conservatives will inevitably say, “This proves that accommodating China achieves nothing.”

That criticism will carry a certain amount of weight.

Being Liked and Commanding Respect

In the end, diplomacy is difficult.

Constantly provoking another country will damage the relationship.

But endless conciliation is not the answer either.

What matters is not being liked. It is managing competing interests while making clear which lines must not be crossed.

This principle applies not only to countries, but also to companies, business partners, and personal relationships.

It is more important to manage competing interests with the people you deal with every day than to hear “I like you” from a hundred people who have no real bearing on your life.

We should make an effort not to damage important relationships. But conceding everything does not produce a good relationship.

There is little point in celebrating whether Japan rose in an international favorability ranking, whether China placed higher or lower, or whether Japan “beat” South Korea.

What diplomacy truly requires is neither a desire to be liked nor a refusal to care about being disliked.

Cooperate where cooperation is possible, and stand firm where compromise is not.

Perhaps the hardest part is deciding where that boundary lies.

Judging by the latest claims concerning Okinawa, Prime Minister Takaichi may be facing a test of that boundary sooner than expected.