Today's Version of “Let the Poor Eat Barley”—What Has Japan's Rice Crisis Really Cost Us?

Rice has been expensive in Japan for about two years now.

I could understand a temporary shortage. I thought, “Things will settle down when the new crop arrives,” or, “Prices will fall once the supply recovers.”

But prices have remained high.

Recently, just as they finally appeared to be falling, the effect on farmers became the next concern. The government began moving to support rice prices through measures such as buying rice for its reserves.

As a consumer, I have become rather detached from the whole situation.

I see. They have no intention of making rice affordable again.

In that case, I have an answer of my own.

I simply will not eat it.

A ¥200 Rice Ball Sends Me to the Bread Aisle

These days, rice balls at convenience stores routinely cost close to ¥200. Depending on the filling, some cost even more.

On the next shelf, packaged sweet buns start at around ¥130. At the supermarket, there is pasta, udon, and yakisoba.

Rice used to be the standard choice when you wanted a cheap and filling meal. Now it has become something people choose only after checking the price.

So bread is fine today. Pasta is fine tomorrow. Udon will do as well.

This is not some kind of anti-farming campaign.

I do not buy it because it is expensive.

That is perfectly ordinary consumer behavior.

“Support Japanese Farmers,” They Say

Rice has long carried an emotional meaning beyond its value as a product.

It is Japan’s staple food. It represents Japanese agriculture. Rice paddies preserve the traditional Japanese landscape.

Farmers are struggling, so we should support them by buying Japanese rice even if it costs a little more. That argument once had some power.

But during the recent rice crisis, many questions arose about inventory within the distribution system and the way prices were being set.

Whether the suspicions are true or not, some people began to wonder if distributors were making unfair profits.

Then, just as prices finally started to fall, the discussion shifted to using tax money to keep them up.

To consumers, it can sound like this:

Please keep buying rice even though it is expensive. We do not intend to make it cheaper.

Farmers need to make a living. Wholesalers and retailers need to make a profit.

I understand that.

But consumers also need to make a living.

If This Is Business, Consumers Can Be Businesslike Too

There is nothing wrong with farmers or wholesalers seeking a profit.

If they make a business argument—“Our business cannot survive at a lower price”—then consumers can make a business decision in return.

“Understood. I will eat something else.”

That is the end of it.

Rice is part of Japanese culture. Farmers deserve sympathy. Rice paddies must be protected.

None of those reasons creates a duty for people with tight household budgets to keep buying expensive rice.

If sellers treat it as business, it is unfair to demand patriotism and nostalgia only from buyers.

The Real Danger Is Getting Used to Life Without Rice

I think the real danger for the rice industry is that consumers may get used to living without rice.

“Bread is fine for breakfast.”

“Pasta is fine for lunch.”

“Udon is fine for dinner too.”

Once that begins to feel normal, habits change.

If people want sushi or a beef bowl, they can eat it at a restaurant. Life at home works perfectly well without cooking rice every day.

Once people become comfortable with alternatives, they may not fully return even if rice becomes cheaper later.

This is what any business should truly fear when raising prices.

Not that customers will become angry.

That customers will find an alternative and stop caring enough to be angry.

Today’s “Let the Poor Eat Barley”

There is a phrase famously associated with Hayato Ikeda, Japan’s finance minister in the postwar era:

“Let the poor eat barley.”

His actual remark was somewhat different from this famous wording, but the phrase has long been remembered as an outrageous comment by a politician.

Now, decades later, those words have started to feel strangely real again.

Rice is expensive?

It cannot be helped. We must protect farmers.

Prices may fall?

Then producers will suffer, so we must take action.

What, then, should people with tight budgets eat?

There is bread. There is udon. There is pasta.

I see.

Of course, the government would never say:

“Let the poor eat barley.”

There would be an enormous backlash.

So it does not say the words.

It only has to keep rice expensive, and people will start eating wheat on their own.

It seems that politics today is far more sophisticated than it was back then.