Who Exactly Is America Fighting? Thoughts on the “Rapprochement” Between Trump and Xi Jinping

Lately, the news has left me with a strange feeling.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have met and emphasized stability and cooperation in US-China relations.

The two countries had been fighting fiercely over tariffs, AI, semiconductors, Taiwan, and more. Now they look remarkably friendly.

Of course, the US-China conflict is not over. Even as they negotiate over trade and tariffs, fundamental disagreements remain over AI, critical minerals, Taiwan, and other issues. In short, rather than “making up,” they are doing business while trading blows.

Even so, as I watch recent US diplomacy, there is one question I cannot shake.

Who exactly is America fighting?

Smiles for Enemies, Bills for Allies

The America we once imagined was easy to understand.

The United States stood at the center of the liberal democratic camp, working with allies such as Japan and European countries while confronting rivals such as China and Russia.

At least, that was the official position.

But when I look at Trump-style diplomacy, that dividing line has become quite blurred.

He meets Xi Jinping directly at the leadership level and makes deals when the terms are right. Meanwhile, he also confronts allies such as Japan and European countries with tough demands over tariffs and defense spending.

The United States has not abandoned its alliances with Japan or Europe. The US-Japan alliance and NATO both remain in place today.

Even so, the scene is a strange one.

America smiles and makes deals with its enemies, then hands its allies the bill.

It looks very different from the world of solidarity among countries that share the same values.

Has the Very Idea of a “Democratic Camp” Become Outdated?

That leads me to a somewhat frightening thought.

Perhaps what matters to Trump is not whether a country is democratic or authoritarian, but simply what it can offer America.

Seen that way, his recent actions make a peculiar kind of sense.

China is one of America’s greatest rivals, but it has a vast market, wields enormous influence over critical-mineral supply chains, and possesses both military power and nuclear weapons.

It cannot be ignored.

That is why Trump speaks directly with Xi Jinping.

By contrast, precisely because Japan, Canada, and European countries are allies, he can demand that they spend more on defense and buy more American products.

Friendship and hostility have little to do with it.

There are only transactions.

It would be a stretch to say that this means Trump rejects democracy.

At the very least, however, he appears to place greater weight on a worldview in which great powers deal directly with one another by setting out their terms than on the traditional Western approach of showing special solidarity because countries are fellow democracies.

Even So, Japan Will “Follow America”

Japan depends heavily on the United States for its security.

The United States is also an important economic partner, while China is another vast market that Japan cannot simply cut off.

In practical terms, this means Japan can neither choose to quarrel with the United States and pursue an independent path nor choose to side with China.

It must preserve the US-Japan alliance while maintaining economic ties with China.

In the end, Japan has no choice but to walk this narrow path.

This is not a question of good and evil.

Given Japan’s national power, it is only natural that it does not hold the same diplomatic cards as the United States or China.

Still, footage of the American and Chinese leaders smiling and shaking hands inevitably leaves me with an odd feeling.

Until yesterday, the message was supposedly that Japan and the United States should work together to counter the threat from China. Yet the United States itself will deal directly with China whenever necessary.

Once that deal is done, it will return to Japan and say once again that the alliance is important.

That, presumably, is the diplomacy of great powers.

It is driven not by friendship, but by whatever serves their interests at that moment.

The interests of smaller countries are ignored.

The Real Danger Is What Japan Learns

What truly frightens me, however, is not the US and China drawing closer in itself.

It is the possibility that Japan, after being confronted with this kind of great-power diplomacy, will swing in a different direction.

In the end, great powers put their own interests first in international politics. They will shake hands with yesterday’s enemy when necessary and casually demand more from their allies. If Japan is shown again and again that economic and military power ultimately count for more than promises or values, it is only natural that different voices will begin to emerge at home.

“Will America really defend Japan?”

“If China and Russia have nuclear weapons, and even the United States cannot be trusted, shouldn’t Japan have nuclear weapons too?”

Arguments that would once have been dismissed as extreme gradually begin to seem more realistic.

Great powers have always been overbearing.

The question is what those forced to witness that behavior learn from it.

Will they conclude that this is precisely why an international system of cooperation that includes smaller countries is necessary?

Or will they conclude that, in the end, every country has no choice but to defend itself?

If Japan moves in the latter direction, even the option of acquiring nuclear weapons will come up for debate. And that is not necessarily the kind of Japan the United States wants to see.

Seen in that light, a somewhat ironic future comes into view.

From Japan’s present-day perspective, Iran, which is in conflict with the United States, looks like a strange country.

But Iran does not trust the great powers and seeks to secure its own national defense, bringing it into fierce conflict with the United States as a result.

Perhaps Iran’s confrontation with America is, unexpectedly, a glimpse of Japan’s own distant future.