Who Suffers When Active Faults Become Visible?—The Landowners Who Were Happier Not Knowing

The other day, I saw a news report about efforts to survey the precise locations of active faults and make them visible on maps.

An active fault is a fault that shows evidence of repeated movement in the past and may cause earthquakes again in the future.

From a disaster-prevention perspective, this is a wonderful technological advance.

If we know where the danger lies, we can avoid it when constructing buildings. Both local governments and residents can make safer decisions.

And everyone lives happily ever after.

…Except it is not that simple.

Knowing where the danger lies also means revealing facts that people who own land or homes there would rather not know.

Just Avoid Active Faults? It Is Not That Simple

The report featured a case in which an active fault had been discovered on a planned development site and the construction plan was altered to avoid it.

That makes sense. Safety comes first. It is an admirable decision.

From the developer’s perspective, however, the situation is not so simple.

The company has already purchased the land, proceeded with the design, and invested money in the project. What happens if it is suddenly told, “There is an active fault at this location”?

Changing the placement of the buildings reduces the number of lots that can be sold. Depending on the plan, the entire project may become unprofitable.

It cannot be helped because safety comes first.

That is easy to say, but the developer is the one that must absorb the loss.

The problem becomes even more difficult when homes have already been built.

What should be done if an active fault is discovered directly beneath a residential neighborhood where people have lived for decades?

The houses cannot simply be moved.

Drawing a line on a map is easy, but people’s property and lives are sitting on top of that line.

If They Knew and Sold It Anyway, Who Is Responsible?

Another issue that concerns me is the responsibility of real estate companies.

Suppose a developer knew that an active fault existed but concealed the information and sold homes there anyway. What would happen?

For the buyers, that would be intolerable.

They might take out mortgages worth tens of millions of yen—hundreds of thousands of dollars—only to discover that their homes were directly above an active fault.

Learning that only after the purchase would leave them in an impossible position.

Naturally, the dispute could end up in court over issues such as liability for nonconformity with the contract or breach of the duty to disclose.

Whether the developer could actually be held liable, however, would depend on what was known at the time of sale and what explanation was legally required.

Even if the buyers won in court, they might not be able to collect compensation if the developer had gone bankrupt.

In the end, the homebuyers could still be left carrying an enormous loss.

Technological progress has made the danger visible.

But making it visible does not mean that someone will compensate those who lose money as a result.

Would You Want to Know That an Active Fault Lies Beneath Your Home?

This raises an even more uncomfortable question.

Do people who already own homes truly want to know whether an active fault lies directly beneath them?

For safety, it is better to know.

But if the fault is publicly identified, the value of the land may fall.

The owner may be unable to find a buyer, while the mortgage remains.

A home worth tens of millions of yen—hundreds of thousands of dollars—until yesterday may suddenly become difficult to sell the moment the survey results are announced.

Nothing beneath the ground has changed.

The only change is that people have learned the truth.

Seen this way, it is understandable that local residents might resist detailed surveys or the publication of their findings.

The authorities explain that the purpose is “to protect residents’ safety.”

For the residents, however, that safety information may destroy the value of their property.

Should the information be made public to protect lives? Or would people be happier remaining unaware in order to protect their property?

It is a genuinely difficult problem.

Science Can Warn Us About Danger, but It Will Not Cover the Losses

Mapping active faults is an advance in science and technology.

But science can answer only the question, “Where is the danger?”

What should be done about the people who already live there?

Who should bear the loss if land values fall?

If new construction is restricted, should landowners be compensated?

Those are questions for politics and law, not science.

Once the danger is known, the authorities cannot ignore it. But regulation will cause losses for landowners and developers.

On the other hand, if the authorities do nothing and an earthquake occurs in the future, they will be criticized: “You knew about the danger. Why did you leave it unaddressed?”

There is no easy escape for the authorities either.

We would like to believe that technological progress makes society more rational.

Reality is somewhat more troublesome.

When science solves one problem, it often reveals several others that had previously been invisible.

Mapping active faults is probably a perfect example.

After speaking so grandly about the issue, however, I should admit that I do not own a home or have a mortgage myself.

In other words, for now, this is entirely someone else’s problem.

I can watch other people’s land potentially collapse in value with nothing more than intellectual curiosity.

It is amazing how stable the ground feels when the problem belongs to someone else.