Would the World Become Peaceful If Trump Disappeared? America's Illness Is Not Going Away
“If only Trump were gone, perhaps the world would become a little more reasonable.”
Watching recent international news makes that an appealing hope.
He suddenly imposes tariffs on countries that were allies just yesterday. If he dislikes something, he even threatens those allies. His statements may change from one day to the next, but he does not seem bothered in the slightest.
Politicians around the world spend every day trying to judge the mood of the American president.
So if Trump left the political stage, national leaders everywhere would probably breathe a collective sigh of relief.
But would that solve the problem?
I believe that is where the real problem would begin.
“America First” Will Not End Under a Democratic Administration
Even if the next administration were Democratic, I do not believe America would return to its former approach of international cooperation.
To begin with, “America First” was not an idea invented by Trump alone.
Protect domestic industries, defeat China in competition, and make allies bear more of the burden.
These priorities are shared by Democratic administrations as well.
In fact, the Biden administration also tightened restrictions on semiconductor exports to China and supported domestic industries with enormous subsidies.
What differs from Trump is the method.
A Democratic president would probably use more courteous language and consult with allies.
But what America ultimately demands would not change very much.
Trump shouts as he thrusts the bill at you. A Democrat hands it to you with a smile.
For the recipient, there is little difference if the amount is the same.
Trump’s Supporters Will Not Disappear with Him
More troublesome still are the people who have supported Trump.
The enormous political movement known as MAGA will not simply dissolve when Trump retires.
Distrust of established politicians and the media, opposition to immigration, and economic frustration.
These sentiments are precisely why Trump has attracted support.
In other words, Trump is both a cause and a result produced by American society.
There is one question that concerns me.
When a figure with Trump’s overwhelming charisma is gone, whom will this vast base follow?
What Comes After the Charismatic Leader May Be More Frightening
For better or worse, Trump holds his supporters together.
When he says something, many of them turn in the same direction.
But what happens when that central figure is gone?
A succession struggle may begin, with multiple politicians and activists claiming, “I am the true MAGA.”
In their competition for supporters, they may try to outdo Trump with even more extreme rhetoric.
Trump also possesses a distinctive kind of calculation.
He says extreme things, yet can abruptly change his position when circumstances demand it. No matter how angry his supporters may be, some will follow when he changes direction.
There is no guarantee that his successors could do the same.
It may be more troublesome to have numerous politicians who stake out extreme positions and then find themselves unable to retreat.
A world pushed around by one Trump, or a world pushed around by ten smaller Trumps.
If asked which is preferable, I could not answer easily.
Turmoil Inside America Becomes Turmoil for the World
In an ordinary country, even serious domestic political turmoil remains domestic to some extent.
America is different.
It has one of the world’s largest economies and military forces, and the dollar sits at the center of international finance.
If political confrontation intensifies and policy loses direction in a country like that, the entire world is drawn in.
Japan is no exception.
Both its security and its trade are heavily influenced by American domestic politics.
And Japan has no way to resolve the divisions within the United States.
About all we can do is anticipate what might happen next and prepare to be pushed around by it.
Trump Was Not the Disease but a Symptom
Ultimately, the hope that America will return to normal once Trump is gone places too much of the blame on one individual.
Trump did not suddenly invent either the divisions in American society or the America First doctrine.
He was the person who transformed frustrations that had rarely surfaced into political power.
Those frustrations will therefore remain after he leaves.
A Democratic administration might make the language of diplomacy somewhat more reasonable.
But the fundamental America First position would remain, and the MAGA base would not disappear.
The conservatives who lose Trump as their central figure might even fall into greater disorder.
The world may celebrate Trump’s departure.
But the following morning, it will discover that the entire problem of America First is still there.
And this time, no one may even know whom to call to get a clear answer.